Sunday, January 21, 2007

There are no guarantees

Absolute Poker
$2.20 3-table NL SNG

Seat 2 - PROACES ($2350 in chips)
Seat 3 - JAMES14411 ($285 in chips)
Seat 4 - OZZY23 ($1430 in chips)
Seat 5 - JAXONBROWN ($1140 in chips)
Seat 6 - SKITTIE ($2990 in chips)
Seat 8 - NEALCASSADY ($3145 in chips)
Seat 9 - CRAPPGAME ($1285 in chips)
JAMES14411 - Posts small blind
$25OZZY23 - Posts big blind $50


Dealt to NEALCASSADY [10h 10c]
JAXONBROWN - Calls $50
SKITTIE - Calls $50

I know. Just calling here is weak. But it's early and the action thus far has featured lots of limping and screwiness. I've got chips and hope to see a raggedy flop.

CRAPPGAME - Calls $50
JAMES14411 - All-In(Raise) $260 to $285
OZZY23 - Folds
JAXONBROWN - Calls $235
SKITTIE - Raises $720 to $770

This is where it gets interesting. There is no way I don't have the re-raiser beat. He's got a middle pair of some sort and wants to isolate. Smart move. But it's time for a squeeze play.

NEALCASSADY - All-In(Raise) $3095 to $3145
SKITTIE - All-In $2220
NEALCASSADY - returned ($155) : not called
*** FLOP *** [As 5s 3c]
*** TURN *** [As 5s 3c] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [As 5s 3c 3h] [3s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
JAMES14411 - Shows [4s 4h] (Full house, threes full of fours)
SKITTIE - Shows [9h 9c] (Full house, threes full of nines)
NEALCASSADY - Shows [10h 10c] (Full house, threes full of tens)
NEALCASSADY Collects $5410 from side pot
NEALCASSADY Collects $1240 from main pot

I didn't expect a call, but realize this was a $2.20 SNG. I managed only a 5th-place finish, when the deck went frigid and steal situations were virtually non-existent. One hundred percent ROI, though. Wooot.

The fact I'm playing on Absolute at all is quirky. My account stood at zero when I collected $3 in rakeback and turned it into $8 ... playing blackjack. I bolstered it a bit more with a second-place finish in a $2 SNG and a second-place finish in a $2 3-table SNG yesterday.

I'm trying a modified Chris Ferguson low-limit challenge, using micro-limit games at a steppingstone to a million-dollar bankroll. Granted, it might take awhile.

And continuing the micro-limit route, I entered two $2.25 7-table satellites this morning for a seat into Full Tilt's $109 100-seat satellite to the $750K guaranteed. I flamed out of the first one and then:

I was severely short-stacked (7K) with 6 players left and the blinds at 1,500/3,000. The big blind hit me and I looked down at Q-5 suited. A big stack pushed and the second-smallest stack called all-in. I wish I was better at roughly calculating 3-way pot odds on the fly, but guessed that I was screwed. I folded and hoped for some minor miracles in the next few hands. I would have busted had I remained in the hand.

Details are hazy, but I basically won the thing in less than 20 hands. I won races, but got my chips only once while behind -- the first and only hands of heads-up, taking out the short-stack's A-Q with 7-9. (I had a 9-1 lead at HU.)

The satellite starts at 3:30 p.m ET, not long after kick-off for the NFC championship game. I had hoped to unregister and take the cash so I could concentrate on football but that does not appear to be an option. Sheeit.

The cash would have been particularly sweet. Why, you ask? Because I've blown through a big chunk of my main online bankroll on Stars playing $1/2 and $2/4 triple draw the last couple of days and am running low on gas. It's amazing how fast you lose money when your priced-in quality draws refuse to hit time and time again. I was running bad, but the games seemed good and I was certain I'd finally have a run. Didn't happen. I sort of know how Chris Fargis feels.

It's a little disappointing. I haven't tried spending consistent hours playing cash games since I quit the $1/2 6-max grind on Party several years ago. I hoped TD would be the ticket. I'd been winning at the game, albeit at a low hourly rate. Variance and some poor bankroll management were mostly to blame for the skid. I don't think I played badly -- the percentage of draws seen stayed consistent at or even below my normal 33 percent. I like TD very much and have no plans to give it up.

Before the day's out, there's a good chance I'll be putting what's left of my Stars 'roll in play for TD. If I go broke, no big deal. While I hardly embrace the concept, I easily accept it as a consequence of poker growth.

(And I'm far from "broke." Online poker has treated me fine, given the amounts I've been willing to risk. Hell, I've been playing off a $100 buy-in at Stars for more than a year and a half and financed a nice family vacation and other expenses with last year's profits. And I've still got a little money on Tilt and a whopping $24 on Absolute.)

I'll reload with elan, if such a thing is possible. Too bad we Ugly American Poker Degenerates are being persecuted by the Uglier American Morality Police. Fuckwads. I'll have an ePassporte account funded in a few days but wonder how long that option will last. I tried to open an alternative Click2Pay account but got this e-mail after my IP address was rejected.

From: Support Team Munich in general

Dear Sir or Madam,

Thank you for contacting the CLICK2PAY Service Team.

Due to the existing US legal situation the decision has been taken to not accept any new sign-ups from US players. Please respect our decision in this regard.

Kind regards
CLICK2PAY Service Team

I replied:



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